Foul Play At The Top?

Earlier this week following the Man Utd vs Fulham game (where Fulham had a clear penalty shout turned down), we saw comments from Patrick Vieira suggesting that there is an advantage that Man Utd are given by referees in regards to penalties against them. This is something that many neutral fans have believed for a long time, and not just about Man Utd but all of the 'Big 4' sides, the question is – Is there any truth to the suggestion?

In order to examine this I compiled stats from the 02/03 season, all the way up the the current season, to establish how many pens each side had been given, both for and against, and then compared this against the league average. Understandably there were some strong variances especially with sides only playing a single season or two in the Premiership skewing the odds slightly, but not enough to make a massive difference overall.

So who has the least penalties given against them on average?

Q.P.R.

The problem here is that so far they've only played 30 games in the top flight, so even a single penalty given either way can cause a big variance, which would make their percentage increase from approx 5.3% to around 7.9%

So taking this into account, who's next?

Man Utd

Now, there's a surprise...

Yes, what the rest of the footballing world thought is quite correct, Man Utd statistically get less penalties given against them than any other premiership side – and that's based on 10 years worth of games as well. Man Utd have a penalty awarded against them in just 6.8% of games, so approx 2.6 penalties against them each season (which would have to be rounded up or down to 2 or 3 per season). Their current total of 3 against so far this year suggests that they're bang on target, and in actual fact another penalty against them would put them above their usual average – wonder if it will happen?

So how about the rest of the traditional big four? (I'll add Spurs & Man City in as well)

Chelsea – 7.4%
Liverpool – 8.9%
Arsenal – 10%
Man City – 10.5%
Spurs – 11.3%

The league average is 11.98% which puts every one of the top 5 sides under this, meaning they have less penalties given against them compared to their opponents.

But let's also be fair and look at the counter-argument to the stats, which is that each of the top sides in general have better quality defenders who are generally less likely to foul opponents in the box giving cause for a penalty. However there's a problem with this, and that is that other sides have managed similar stats (albeit for less seasons overall), despite having generally having 'poorer' defenders on show.
QPR as already noted are lowest, filling up the gap below the average are:

Blackpool – 7.9%
Swansea – 7.9%
Middlesboro – 8.7%
Everton – 8.7%
Southampton – 8.8%
Bolton – 10.5%
Derby – 10.5%
Fulham – 10.5%
Hull – 10.5%
Leicester – 10.5%
Wolves – 11.2%
Blackburn – 11.6%

Not exactly the cream of the defences is it?

How about the other angle? How many penalties are the top sides given in their favour?

The league average is 11.5% and the big four again beat this...

Man Utd – 14.5%
Arsenal – 14.2%
Liverpool – 14.2%
Chelsea – 13.7%
Man City – 12.1%
Spurs – 11.3%

Notice however that Spurs are actually just below the average compared to their title rivals.

The argument here would be that these sides have better strikers, therefore with the opposition having worse defenders there's more chance of being given penalties - but again the other sides in the equation disprove the theory:

C.Palace – 31.6% !!!
Blackpool – 21.1% !
Burnley – 15.8%
Swansea – 15.8%
Hull – 13.2%
Sheffield Utd – 13.2%
Aston Villa – 12.9%
Newcastle – 12.3%
Blackburn – 11.6%

Again, we're not talking about world beating strikers at these clubs, so the previous argument regarding the quality of striker vs defender doesn't hold too much water relatively speaking.

There are only 7 sides in the period analysed that beat the averages in both the for and against columns and they are:

Arsenal
Blackpool
Chelsea
Hull
Liverpool
Man Utd
Swansea

If we then take out the sides with only a single season, or just 2 seasons in the top flight and you get:

Arsenal
Chelsea
Liverpool
Man Utd

So the 'big four' sides all appear to get more penalties given in their favour and less against them – again not something most fans will probably find difficult to believe.

The sides that really don't have things go their way:

For Against
Charlton – 9.5% 13.2%
Norwich – 7.9% 13.2%
Reading – 9.2% 15.8%
Sunderland – 10.2% 16.5%
Watford – 7.9% 15.8%
West Brom – 7.5% 14%
Wigan – 10.2% 14.3%

So my own team Norwich City, have some of the worst 'luck' in regards to penalties overall (something I've also suspected for a long time) - The same with many 'small' clubs...

What this illustrates is that over a single season, a side with 'lesser' players can occasionally get some sort of parity with the big sides, but the general rule of thumb seems to be that the top sides get more penalty decisions go their way on average - with Man Utd leading the pack.

This is also the case this season, with Man Utd leading the overall table, which if we convert %'s into decisions, gives them +4 beneficial decisions overall in regards to pens (based on them being given 9 penalties for instead of their 5 penalty average, and them being bang on with their against tally).

So the next time a Man Utd fan tells you that it's just an urban myth that their side seems to get preferential treatment in regards to pens – direct them to these stats – and then smile to yourself...